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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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