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Breaking into the planet's most popular museum in broad daylight, grabbing eight pieces of priceless historical gems and disappearing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, executed for global fame and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who study trends in global cultural theft, however, see Sunday morning’s robbery at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the most recent in a string of quick-hit thefts focused more on the monetary worth of precious stones or metals than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a trend that has appeared over the last ten years in Germany, the UK and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“You may ask why criminals who want to take expensive jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is better protected.”

A spate of violent retail store thefts indicate that many outlets have beefed up their security in the past few years, with armed guards on their premises and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look vulnerable, in part because of the inherent reason of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and also the financial situation in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, governments across the world have reduced spending on law enforcement and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The theft of the objects – featuring jewelry pieces made up of precious stones and 631 diamonds, the tiara of Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable diadem once owned by a royal that the robbers dropped by the roadside on their way out – has naturally been compared with the historical theft of the famous painting from the same museum, performed by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better comparisons may be the 2019 burglary of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the taking of a multi-million pound gold toilet from a UK landmark the same year, the recent heist of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of robberies of collector items from American institutions.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” explained Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, specialists say, the thieves would find it hard to sell them. “There’s no way to sell something as immediately identifiable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, commented an art crime researcher of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They would be immediately recognised, particularly given the cultural authorities has published photos of the pieces. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see documentation confirming proper ownership before handling such striking pieces.”

In the past, museums were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of well-known works of art and would stay silent out of shame. These days, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the keeping and selling of stolen art is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a plan to conceal it, perhaps by passing it around difficult criminal actors,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to cash in a ransom.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you buy this, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Modifying taken items by melting down or reshaping does lower the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with considerable risk because modern cutting techniques give gems a larger and brighter surface area, and older-style stones would either attract notice or barter the price down for a concealment.

Importantly, however, melting down or re-cutting eliminates the evidence of the theft. “My guess is that the robbers will try to take the items to locations with gem knowledge like Israel, another nation or even as nearby as Antwerp, and locate an expert to cut out the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the museum, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be published soon criticising “significant” and “ongoing” delays in modernizing systems and noting that security cameras were lacking in many rooms. But specialists say showing precious items in historic buildings with a steady stream of guests comes with risks that are not possible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to secure,” said Erin Thompson. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for criminals to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for structures should be conceptualised “as a stronghold”, said a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to deter attackers.”

Modern buildings are equipped with state-of-the-art surveillance systems or integrated vibration sensors that alert about a smashed window in real time, but old museums may be hesitant to alter their exteriors. Detection devices can be difficult to fit to decorated surfaces. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as crowds stomp through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why thefts tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when security change their shifts and prior to the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Technological progress may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more quickly and effectively, but it has also provided robbers new tools with which to circumvent security measures. In Paris, the robbers accessed the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in the country about the historic building had primarily focused on visitor management in recent years, and not as much on security.

The institution has an in-house team of about fifty full-time firefighters, but their purpose is mostly to safeguard the artworks from blazes and flooding. “There is no rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “In the end, the security of the Louvre all depends on government support and money, and at present the nation lacks sufficient resources.”